My latest total return updates prompted an email from Jeff in Huntsville, Alabama:

I am curious about one thing: Have you ever made a 5-year version of your S&P returns with dividends chart? I often listen to Dave Ramsey's personal finance radio program, and his standard advice is to invest money in stocks as long as your time horizon is at least 5 years. I am curious what portion of 5 year periods have a poor rate of real returns.

Well, Jeff, I've now added a 5-year roller coaster to our total returns amusement park. At first glance, the chart looks surprisingly similar to the 10-year version. But I had to rescale the Y-axis to keep the increased volatility on the chart. The average of those 5-year rolling returns is a comfortable 7.08%. But the range goes from delirious 33.35% to a disastrous -13.22%. And remember, these are annualized total returns. The -8.12% rate for March 2009 computes to a 34.5% portfolio decline over five years. That would be rather alarming for the college fund of a young teenager or the aging boomer's dream of retirement.

If you really need the money in five years, stocks are risky. The real annualized return has been less than 5% about 39% of the time, and 19% of the time it put you in the red.