Dueling Bears and Money Illusion
June 23, 2009

Click to View For those who correctly understand that the "real" S&P 500 bear market started in 2000 with the Tech Crash, here is a chart that overlays its performance on the legendary Dow Crash and Great Depression. Both are adjusted for inflation using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI). Dividends are excluded.

Most people, however, evaluate market performance in nominal terms with no inflation adjustment, as in this chart, which obscures the true origin of our 21st century downturn. Such charts also foster what economists call the money illusion — an unreal image of wealth based on nominal dollar terms.

But wait. Could it be that even in our inflation-adjusted chart, the current bear gets a "money illusion" boost?

Click to View Here is the same chart — this time adjusted using the Alternate CPI maintained by Economist John Williams at his Shadow Government Statistics website. Williams' Alternate CPI preserves the algorithms in place before 1982, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began introducing a series of modifications to their calculation methods. Those modifications have significantly reduced the government's official estimate of inflation, which has a ripple effect throughout the economy. For example, Social Security Cost-of-Living-Adjustments (COLAs) are accordingly reduced — not a happy outcome for senior citizens.

For a fascinating perspective on inflation and the adjustments to the official calculation method, see these videos from ChrisMartenson.com.

We'll periodically review this chart series in the months ahead.