As January Goes, So Goes the Year?
January 30, 2009  Updated 

This item was posted a few hours before the market closed, ending out the month. By the close of trading, the January decline of 8.57% in the S&P 500 became the worst ever, snapping the 39-year record decline of January 1970. Incidentally, the index finished 1970 in positive territory — up 0.10%.

Here's a table of all the years with a negative annual return in the S&P Composite since 1871. The data underlying the annual percentages is the monthly average of daily closes from December to December.

Fifty of the 137 years had a negative return. About half the time (26 to be exact) the January monthly average was also in the red.

Of the 87 years with a positive return, the January monthly average was negative only 15 times: 1885, 1895, 1916, 1919, 1922, 1927, 1948, 1956, 1968, 1978, 1982, 1991, 1993, 2003, and 2005.

Year

January

Close

1873

0.80%

-12.82%

1875

0.00%

-3.74%

1876

2.10%

-18.08%

1877

-0.80%

-9.22%

1882

-1.50%

-2.83%

1883

-0.50%

-8.56%

1884

-3.00%

-18.73%

1887

-1.10%

-6.56%

1888

0.80%

-2.47%

1890

1.10%

-13.53%

1893

1.80%

-19.96%

1894

-2.00%

-2.49%

1896

-1.20%

-2.31%

1903

5.10%

-18.39%

1907

-2.80%

-33.23%

1910

-2.10%

-12.14%

1913

-0.90%

-14.29%

1914

4.10%

-8.58%

1917

-2.30%

-30.61%

1920

-1.00%

-23.65%

1923

1.40%

-2.62%

1929

7.40%

-7.56%

1930

1.40%

-27.52%

1931

3.00%

-45.58%

1932

-1.70%

-19.19%

1934

5.70%

-7.12%

1937

3.10%

-35.40%

1939

-1.50%

-2.52%

1940

-0.60%

-14.87%

1941

0.20%

-16.81%

1946

4.00%

-12.69%

1947

0.50%

-0.66%

1953

0.50%

-4.65%

1957

-2.20%

-13.16%

1960

-1.70%

-3.83%

1962

-3.70%

-12.68%

1966

1.70%

-11.34%

1969

-4.20%

-14.45%

1970

-0.90%

-1.16%

1973

0.80%

-19.34%

1974

1.40%

-29.24%

1977

-0.90%

-10.39%

1981

-0.40%

-7.27%

1987

6.40%

-3.06%

1990

-2.50%

-5.69%

1994

1.50%

-2.31%

2000

-0.20%

-6.84%

2001

0.40%

-13.98%

2002

-0.40%

-21.46%

2008

-6.80%

-40.67%

Total Down

26

50