The "Real" Mega-Bears
January 1, 2010  weekend update 

Click to View It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

This series is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

This chart series now includes a nominal version to help clarify the illusion of market performance created by inflation.

For those who prefer the overlay aligned with the 2007 S&P 500 peak, here is our nominal Mega-Bear Quartet charts and commentary.