The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"
December 26, 2009  weekend update 

Click to View Here's an update of the Mega-Bear Quartet, which overlays the current bear market with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ.

Here's a musical analogy that allows you to view the similarities incrementally. Use the blue links to add the parts.

This latest update now includes an inflation-adjusted chart, which gives us a fascinating visualization of the impact of inflation on long-term market prices. The higher the rate of inflation during a bear market, the greater the real decline. Compare the peak of the Dow rally in year seven against the nominal chart. The difference is the result of deflation during the Great Depression.

It's rather stunning to see the real (inflation-adjusted) decline of the Nikkei, 19 years after its crash. The current lows rival the traumatic Dow bottom in 1932, less than 3 years after its peak.

Over the past few decades, equity markets in the U.S. have had an extended bull run. These charts remind us that bear markets can last a long time. And it's not necessary to go back to the Great Depression for an example.

See also my preferred version, which puts the start of the current secular bear in 2000 with the popping of the Tech Bubble. In inflation-adjusted terms, the S&P 500 reached its all-time high in March 2000. Although the nominal high in October 2007 was higher, the "real" high was not.