The Four Bad Bears chart on this website uses the Dow for the Crash of 1929 and the S&P 500 for the other three bears. It's a bit of an apples and oranges comparison necessitated by my lack of daily data for the S&P index prior to 1950. I've also rationalized the combination because of the popularity of the Dow as an emblem of the earlier era and its increasing irrelevance as an indicator for the broader market over the past couple of decades.
Here's the first chart in new series that focuses exclusively on the S&P Composite. It's based on real (inflation-adjusted) monthly averages of daily closes. Also, the chart shows both the price (excluding dividends) and total return (with dividends).
There are some key observations:
If we use the October 2007 nominal high for the beginning of the current bear, the decline to date is greater than the equivalent elapsed time for the Crash of 1929.
Dividends made a significant difference for the earlier market. Excluding dividends the S&P took 29.25 years to break even. With dividends reinvested, the S&P Composite regained the 1929 peak after 7.25 years.
Today's dividend advantage is less than half of what it was over the equivalent 19-month period beginning in October 1929.
Now let's look at another comparison with the Crash of 1929 — one that starts the current bear in 2000. Why? In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, the S&P 500 peak in 2007 was lower than the (nominal) all-time high in 2000.
The Four Bad Bears chart on this website uses the Dow for the Crash of 1929 and the S&P 500 for the other three bears. It's a bit of an apples and oranges comparison necessitated by my lack of daily data for the S&P index prior to 1950. I've also rationalized the combination because of the popularity of the Dow as an emblem of the earlier era and its increasing irrelevance as an indicator for the broader market over the past couple of decades.
