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Here's another in our series comparing total return in today's bear market with the Crash of 1929 (previously here and here).
In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, the S&P Composite needed 29.25 years to regain the 1929 pre-crash high. However, with dividends reinvested, the inflation-adjusted total return was an impressive 385.9% when the index price finally broke even in November 1958.
Will the secular bear market that began in 2000 have the same total-return success when the S&P 500 eventually breaks even? Given the much lower dividend yield over the past two decades, the prospects are far less encouraging.
This new chart offers another fascinating — and equally troubling — comparison. Like the previous charts in this series (click the blue links to compare) this one shows both the index price (excluding dividends) and total return (with dividends).
Just as the first wave of the Boomer generation hit mid-career, dividend yields went into freefall. See my previous comments on this topic in A Short History of Stock Dividends.
Market Days: During the earlier period the market was open on Saturdays. To keep the overlay reasonably aligned, I have removed Saturdays from the data sequence.
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