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In recent weeks, with every update the Growth Index falls lower and lower. So I spent some time analyzing the data to get a better idea of what's happening. The Growth Index is a 91-day moving average for the year-over-year net growth/contraction of the Institute's Weighted Composite Index (see the FAQ link above for details). The chart below is an overlay of the Weighted Composite Index and its 91-day moving average. I've also included a 23-day moving average to show moving-average crossovers with a ratio similar to the 200-50 or 40-10 crossovers familiar to technical analysts.
The chart below models an immediate and dramatic recovery in the Weighted Composite Index. As we can see, even if index reversed course and made a straight line recovery to the highs of 2009 by the end of this year, the 91-day moving average would continue to fall for two more weeks and flatline until mid-September before beginning to rise.
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