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My original post on Sixteen Dow Recoveries prompted a response from Bob Bronson, whose market analysis I've featured elswhere:
Bob's latest email was accompanied by an annotated version of my Dow recovery overlay chart. Bob added some dotted lines with this observation: "A simple median reversion suggests that the index will decline over the next 1-10 months."The email didn't mention a specific target for the reversion, but the horizontal dotted line appears to be a classic 10% correction from the current level, which would take the Dow down to about the 10,085 level.
Here is a table summarizing the comparative performance of these 16 Dow recoveries at seven points in time. Note: this chart shows the nominal performance, not the real (inflation-adjusted) performance which I previously presented in a table format.
I'll post updated versions of this table periodically over the next several months.
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