A Decade of Independence Days
July 4, 2011

On July 4, 1776, the American colonies declared independence from the Kingdom of Great Britain. Over the years Independence Day, the Fourth of July, has become a symbol of America and its values.

The past decade has presented some stunning challenges to the United States. The popping of the Tech Bubble, the attack on the Trade Towers, ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, the residential real estate, the Financial Crisis, the Oil Catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico, and the list goes on.

The latest S&P 500 closing price is 31% above last year but 8.8% below July 4th 2000, and the market performance in the intervening years has been a roller coaster of nauseating effect. At present the index is down 16% from its interim high, and on Friday the 50-day moving average crossed fractionally below the 200-day moving average — the so-called death cross. Market technicians in unison are pointing to the dreaded head-and-shoulders pattern in several major stock indexes around the world.

These are indeed troubling times. But the US has a long record of managing calamities and finding the light at the end of the tunnel.

Happy Fourth to all.

Click to View
Click for a larger image