Neil Sedaka's classic Breaking Up Is Hard to Do hit number one on the Billboard Hot 100 on Saturday, August 11, 1962 and was an instant hit around the world. The S&P 500 was smack in the middle of a bear market. It had closed the week at 57.55 — 24.5% below the previous all-time high and three months shy of a sustained recovery.
What would a break "up" look like in today's S&P 500? Unless you're a permabear (or a teenager in love) that would be a welcome development. Technical analyst Chris Kimble takes on the task of identifying what a market break "up" would look like.
Chris explains: Investing is all about Risk Management. Are their absolutes in the business? Usually not! For a couple of weeks we have shared that a "Head-and-Shoulders" topping pattern, could be in the making. See, for example, Just a Pinch More posted on June 11th.
The 500 index intra-day yesterday came within a couple of percent of the highs reached in January, which is the level of the left shoulder.
So is the pattern complete? Could be. Only time and price will tell.
Today I want to identify the level it would take to "break up" the pattern and what will be the game plan if it does.
At a right shoulder, investors should "harvest" (raise cash) or take positions to score on defense. If the markets break this pattern by moving a couple of percent above the 1,150 level, investors would want to follow the breakout.