S&P 500 Moving Averages: Month-End Preview
January 29, 2010  now updated with an Ivy Portfolio table! 

Before the market opens on the last trading day of the month, we can safely assume there will be no monthly-close surprises in our S&P 500 market timing signals. All three monthly moving averages we've been watching continue to signal an equities position, athough the margin has shrunk significantly. The 10-month SMA gave a buy signal at the end of June, and the 12-SMA and 10-EMA signaled buys at the end of July.

The Ivy Portfolio

This table previews the 10-month SMA timing signals for the five asset classes highlighted in The Ivy Portfolio. See the Timing Updates and Ivy Portfolio Charts links in the left column navigator for interim updates (excluding dividends) and monthly charts (which include dividends), respectively.

After the end-of-month market close, we'll update our regular monthly moving average feature with charts to illustrate. But here's a quick sanity check: Since 1950 the S&P 500 10-month SMA has had 41 buy signals; 15 of them (36.6%) ultimately led to a loss. The 12-month SMA has had 31 buy signals, 10 of which (32.3%) led to a loss.

The bottom line, as we've pointed out earlier, is that these moving-average signals have a good track record for long-term gains while avoiding major losses. They're not fool-proof, but they essentially dodged the 2007-2009 bear and thus far have captured significant gains since the buy signals after the March 2009 low.