Flunking Your Retirement
By Doug Short
December 18, 2007

You flunked! Do you know the four-letter secret to retirement success?

Pop quiz! Test your number skills with these two questions:

  1. If the chance of getting a disease is 10 percent, how many people out of 1,000 would be expected to get the disease?

  2. If 5 people all have the winning number in the lottery and the prize is 2 million dollars, how much will each of them get?

Duh! You knew the first answer (100) before you reached the question mark. The second one ($400,000) took a tad longer. Maybe two seconds? Five max?

These questions were asked during a Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to measure the financial literacy of Baby Boomers. While 84% nailed the disease question, only 56% could divide the lottery correctly. People who got at least one of the answers right were asked a bonus question:

  1. Let's say you have 200 dollars in a savings account. The account earns 10 percent interest per year. How much would you have in the account at the end of two years?

Only 18% got the right answer, $242, to this simple problem in compound interest.

A prize-winning article in the Journal of Monetary Economics cited these stats to make a connection between financial literacy and retirement security. However, the article also shows that the former does NOT guarantee the latter. The critical link is a four-letter word: P-L-A-N. Savers with a financial plan retire with about twice the wealth of non-planners.

Don't most people plan for retirement?

Nope, not even one in five. The biannual HRS survey targets people 50 and older, an age when you'd expect some serious efforts at retirement planning. Astonishingly, the article reports that less than a third of the respondents have tried to calculate their savings needs, and only 18% reported success in developing a savings plan.

The failure to plan is probably a carry-over from previous generations. When today's Boomers were children, pensions were common, life expectancies were shorter, and families often supported elderly parents. Today the pension is fast becoming a relic, people are living longer, and less than half as many elderly live with their children. The problem is worsened by a shaky of Social Security system and health care costs growing at twice the rate of inflation.

Foolish dollars and sense

The fact that you read Fool articles is evidence of your financial literacy. But are you still among the vast majority with no retirement plans? You may understand compound interest, but that won't transport you to retirement bliss. For that, you need a plan.

"But I'm good with money!" you exclaim. "I have a 401(k), and last year I opened a brokerage account and invested in some of my favorite stocks."

Your favorite picks

Gain since 1/3/2006

$1000 becomes

Amazon

79%

$1,788

Dell

-23%

$773

eBay

-28%

$717

Google

54%

$1,538

IBM

31%

$1,309

Microsoft

32%

$1,318

Yahoo

-44%

$563

Performance gains as of 12/17/2007

Great! Perhaps you follow the markets on Yahoo! Finance (Nasdaq: YHOO) and earned some money selling stuff on eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY). You shop at Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) on your Dell laptop (NYSE: DELL) and use Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to surf the Internet. But your first computer, an IBM (NYSE: IBM) running Microsoft Windows (Nasdaq: MSFT), has a special place in your heart. So, at the beginning of 2006 you invested some money equally among these stocks.

Your portfolio has increased by 14.4%, which outperformed the S&P 500 by a whopping 0.4%. And how much time do you spend daily checking your stocks, fretting on market downturns, and wondering if you should sell this or buy that?

Have you spent any time in actual retirement planning? Sorry, tracking your portfolio doesn't count.

What's the difference?

Assembling and monitoring a market-beating portfolio is a great start, but even that's not enough. It still leaves some important questions unanswered:

You can start to answer those questions by being among the prudent minority of people who calculate their retirement savings needs, which can be done with an online retirement calculator. For more detailed planning — as well as a more sophisticated number cruncher — take a 30-day free trial to The Motley Fool's Rule Your Retirement service. You'll have access to all the past issues, special reports, and the DirectAdvice Financial Planning Tool, which steps you through a personalized planning interview and handles all the calculations for you. If you like the idea of joining those who have a retirement plan — and twice as much wealth — a free trial to Rule Your Retirement is a great place to start.


A version of this article was published on the Motley Fool website. Click here to view.