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Note from dshort: Regular visitors to this website know my preference for long-term market perspectives and may recall this article on Robert "Bob" Bronson, who has spent decades analyzing market history and merits a link in dshort.com Favorites. Below is an email Bob sent earlier today. See also his previous discussion of unemployment here.
The Disconnect Between the Jobless Data and Nonfarm Payrolls
More on not-so-bullish payroll employment
and continuing bearish initial unemployment claims.
Excerpted from permabull Dick Greene's Briefing.com update on initial unemployment claims:
| "There is a growing disconnect between the jobless data and the nonfarm payrolls, which rose at the fastest rate since March 2006 in April. Typically, this is rectified with smaller-than-expected payroll gains over the coming months." Yep! |
Note also that initial unemployment claims as a leading economic indicator, and thus a very important coincident indicator for the stock market, troughed on Feb 6. Both its four-week moving average and a polynomial best-fit of all 59 weeks of data troughed March 27, 11- and four-weeks, respectively, before the Supercycle Winter dumbed-down, and thus lagging, stock market peaked on April 26.
May 13, 2010
Bob Bronson
Bronson Capital Markets Research
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