Happy Anniversary! As We Bank on the Future
April 9, 2010  Analysis from Chris Kimble 

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Here's the latest pair of charts from Chris Kimble, a 30-year+ market technician and student of Sir John Templeton, along with the email that accompanied the charts:

Are we in a Bull Market or a Bear Market? Could it depend upon what time frame we choose?

From March of 2009 to now, things look pretty good. What about since March of 2007 or March of 2000?

Since we just finished a quarter, I thought a "Happy Anniversary" chart [first chart] should be issued in a slightly belated celebration of the 10th anniversary of the high reached on March 24, 2000.

Since then, the price of the S&P 500 index remains 23% lower.

Sixth Century poet and philosopher Loa Tzu observed: "Those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict don't have knowledge." Yet most of the industry seems to be obsessed with trying to guess the future [second chart]. Hope based strategies (needing prices to move higher to make money) continue to hold a majority of assets.

Sure makes me curious what 10 years from now will look like for the "hope based strategies" that seem to dominate the industry.


Footnote: The second chart should be viewed as a follow-up to Chris's earlier look at the bank index on March 30th.